Oscar Predicitions

Vote selection and who you think will win are not the same.

For best picture, I would vote for Argo.  I think Lincoln will win.
Who I would vote for as to best director is not even nominated but given the choices, I would vote for Ang Lee.   Since in the majority of cases there is a commonality between best director and best movie, my prediction is Steven Spielberg.  I learned yesterday that there has been a variance 20 times between best director and best film.   I thought there would be a higher correlation.  Tonight could easily be number 21.
For best actor, I will be surprised if it is not Daniel Day-Lewis.  For me, his selection is the easiest of the major awards. 
For best actress, my vote goes to Jennifer Lawrence.  I know my review of Silver Linings Playbook said great acting but no Oscars.  I've changed my mind.
Further proof of a revised opinion:  I think Robert De Nero will win Oscar for best male supporting role.  I'm comfortable with any of the nominees winning this award.  For me, this is tough one.
Best actress in supporting role?  I think Sally Field will receive the award out of respect for her having to gain wait - 20 pounds is what I've read - to play the part.  And it really was the best performances of the nominees. 
I am truly surprised that Flight screenwriter won a nomination.  I've not seen Amour.   My intention is to see it this week.  I hope Mark Boal does NOT win for Zero Dark Thirty.  As to best screenplay adopted from another media, I would vote for the authors of Beasts of the Southern Wild.  But I will be peasently surprised if they were to win.  David Magee producing a script for Life of Pi is amazing.

For an interesting view on the Oscars, checkout Mark by Disney for a post on the difference between the British  Odds as opposed to Las Vegas.